​ATIKU’S ITINERARY IN NIGERIA POLITICS AND HIS WINNING CHANCES IN 2019

By Segun Ogunlade

The emergence of Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has generated reactions from the circles of all the concerned in the country. For many, he is definitely the only man from the opposition camp to give President Muhammadu Buhari a hot contention come February 19, 2019. But the way he emerged was rather surprising. No one would have imagined he would win the party primaries with such a landslide especially when one takes into consideration those that contested for the ticket with him. The most popular among them include Senate President Bukola Saraki, David Mark, Aminu Tambuwal, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Sule Lamido, Ahmed Makarfi, and Jonah Jang. With a vote of 1,532, the closest person to him, Aminu Tambuwal, had 693. This was a difference of 829. With his emergence, one can easily say he enjoyed popular support from his party members. But the way money was said to exchange hands could fault that conclusion. 

However, he was not the only who threw money around during the party primary. But as they would describe it on the street, money pass money. Of course, it would be wrong to say it was the amount of money he shared that made him. As I have said before, he is the strongest man from the PDP that can garner enough votes that could see the opposition party through returning to Aso Villa. 
Atiku Abubakar has been around in the political space far longer than we think. His itinerary in Nigeria politics began in 1991 when he contested for the governor of the defunct Gongola State (now Adamawa and Taraba states), two years after he left the Nigeria Customs Service as the Deputy Director in 1989 to venture into business and full time politics. In the build up to the annulled June 3rd, 1993 election, he said he stepped down for late Chief M.K.O. Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He contested and won the governorship seat of Adamawa state under PDP in 1998. When Chief Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as the country’s president in February 1999, Atiku Abubakar was chosen by PDP to be the vice-president. He enjoyed a hitch-free first term with his boss up till 2003 as trouble began when he opposed Obasanjo’s third term ambition while Obasanjo would not let him succeed him to the number one seat. Besides, some corruption cases were brought against him and he is still being haunted by that till date. 
As a result of the strained relationship with his boss, he defected from PDP to the newly formed Action Congress (AC) in 2006. In the presidential election that followed in 2007, he got his party’s mandate to run and he contested against late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of PDP and Muhammadu 
Buhari of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). The election was won by PDP while ANPP came second and AC third. This particular election was bedeviled with many electoral malpractices across the federation. The results from the state were not released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under the chairmanship of Maurice Iwu. In fact, the late Umaru Yar’Adua confessed that the election that brought him into office was not free and fair. PDP had 24,638, 063 votes, ANPP 6,605,299 and AC 2,637,848. 
Yet, Atiku remained in Action Congress till 2009 when he defected back to PDP. This was a miscalculated move in the hope of getting PDP’s ticket to contest the 2011 presidential election. It was Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who however got the party’s ticket having polled 2,736 votes at the primary election as against Atiku’s 805. Had he remained in Action Congress that had turned Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), he could have dislodged Nuhu Ribadu as the party’s candidate for the presidential election. In that election ACN came third with 2,079, 151 behind PDP that polled 22, 616, 416 votes and CPC had 12, 250, 853 votes. 
Still in his search of a perfect place to contest for the presidency, Atiku again left PDP in 2013 to team up with the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), a merger of the three major opposition parties – Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change, and a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). His defection was hinged on PDP’s choice of Goodluck Jonathan as the consensus candidate of the party. Unfortunately for him, it was Muhammadu Buhari that emerged as APC’s candidate for the 2015 election with 3,430 votes in the primary election of the party held on the 10th of December, 2014. APC would go on to win the general election with a total vote of 15, 424, 921 as against PDP’s 12, 853, 162 votes. 
In his usual prostitute-like movement of moving from one party to the other like, he announced his defection back to PDP in a Facebook live chat in the evening of December 3rd, 2017. This time around, it had paid off for him as he has finally got what he wanted from his journey in the political space. People from Buhari’s camp know in their heart of hearts that he would be a formidable opponent at the next election, no matter how they might try to conceal it but because Atiku has never won an election against Buhari on a one-on-one basis, they could have a reason to rejoice. In the 2007 presidential election that the two men lost, Buhari had 3,967,451 votes more than Atiku. Also, when the two men contested for the APC presidential ticket alongside Rabiu Kwankwaso and Rochas Okorocha in 2014, it was Buhari who won. Atiku did not even finish second but third with 954 votes. The difference between his votes and that of Buhari was 2,476. If history is anything to go by, one might be convinced to say history always has a way of repeating itself in different shades at different times and Atiku might again lose. But when one considers the “anything but Jonathan” shout that preceded the last presidential election and a similar cry that is now being made, one might be convinced to say Atiku has a better chance of winning. Of course many Nigerians are disappointed that having ridden on the back of change and integrity to Aso Villa, he has hitherto performed woefully in all spheres of the term, more than the former occupant of that place according to many Nigerians. 
The only advantage which Buhari has over Atiku in this coming election is the presidential leverage which we have seen at work in times past. Otherwise, the two men have a large followership in the North, Buhari in the North West and Atiku in the North East and would both have to depend on votes from the South. One can say PDP would win the south-east and probably south-south where it had a large electorate base and also the choice of Peter Obi as running mate to Atiku, but that cannot be confidently said about APC and the south-west especially with the way federal power was wielded at both Ekiti and Osun governorship elections and the ruling party alleged disregard for the will of the people. 
On the other hand, the integrity that could have been Buhari’s ‘selling point’ in this two-horse race is being questioned by a large percentage of Nigerians. With Atiku as an ‘advocate’ of restructuring which might be one of the deciding factors in the election, he might win many people to his side. But that again is not going to be easy. APC promised to make their campaign an issue-based one and PDP has even started that by giving the ruling party a list of fourteen posers to respond to as they prepare for the election. Besides, Atiku now has the support of his former boss, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. In times past, the Obasanjo-effect on presidential elections were overwhelming albeit being inconspicuous sometimes as it was in 2015.
The two men have a long history in Nigeria’s politics and one could be assured of a keenly contested election that would be decided by external factors as the men are not themselves the best to hold the scepter of power. Buhari is an old man of 75 who does not possess the political nuance to govern a 21st century Nigeria and Atiku is not better off as he is also close to his 72nd birthday. Yet, this may be the best time for Atiku to win the election. If he loses, he would be 77 in 2023 and would be too old in the face of the political evolution in the country. The two men are not ideal personalities, but they are with the political wherewithal to win the election and we may have to make do with either of them. None of them can be assured of victory but one of them would surely win. Who the winner will be, time will tell. For now, the remaining twenty-nine parties can go to bed and come in 2023 to try again.